The 2015 NBA Draft is under way and I thought would do some analysis to answer some questions. Is the NBA lottery fair for all teams?
The first step in this process is determining what data is needed and where can it be sourced. In the next post I’ll go over collecting the data. Ultimately I want to be able to answer the following:
Which team has been given favorable lottery pick draft positions?
Which team has been given unfavorable lottery pick draft positions?
Which team has benefited the most by their lottery pick draft position?
Which team has benefited the least by their lottery pick draft position?
Which team has benefited the most by their lottery pick draft decision?
Which team has benefited the least by their lottery pick draft decision?
Which team has benefited the most by the lottery?
Which team has benefited the least by the lottery?
General requirements for analysis.
What metrics and metadata will be needed for this analysis?
- The ability to quantify the value of a player.
- The ability to quantify the value of a team.
- Historical lottery positions.
- Historical lottery decisions.
With the above metrics I can analyze the success of players and teams. I’ll have the ability to analyze draft positions, whether or not a team moved up or down, draft decisions and whether or not the draft decision paid off.
Functional requirements for analysis.
What data is needed, where can it be found, and what will it look like?
|What data is needed?||What metric will be used?||Where can the data be found|
|The ability to quantify the value of a player||Player Efficiency Rating(“PER”)||www.basketball-reference.com|
|The ability to quantify the value of a team||Win-Loss records by team by season||www.draftexpress.com/nba-draft-lottery-history/|
|Historical lottery positions and historical lottery decisions||Draft position and draft decisions||Wikipedia|
What will the data look like?
|player_name||name of the player|
|games_played||number of games played per season|
|minutes_played||number of minutes played per season|
|per||player efficiency rating|
|year||year of lottery|
|record_won||number of games won in previous season|
|record_lost||number of games lost in previous season|
|lottery_balls||number of lottery balls awarded to team|
|pct_position_1||odds of getting the #1 pick|
|pct_position_2||odds of getting the #2 pick|
|pct_position_3||odds of getting the #3 pick|
|slot_won||what slot did you receive?|
|year||year of lottery|
Next up, putting the scripts together to collect this data and put it into a database for analysis.